Consensus and the NHL draft

Fans of the NHL draft often speak as if there is a lot of consensus about who is likely to go where in the draft. They might follow the ISS lists that come out every month, not see a lot of movement, and think that this means consensus is building. That notion needs to be dispelled.

First, we only see the lists of scouting services, not of the teams. So we only see a small portion of the qualified lists out there. Second, it's only the very top guys which scouts can agree on, and here we're only talking say top three. Beyond that, as you move away from the top, there is more and more variance, to the point where someone who is very high on one NHL team's list may not even appear on another's. Teams vary in their draft philosophy and tastes. There are 30 NHL teams, and that means 30 very different-looking lists. Teams usually only rank 125 guys per year. They did this even when there were nine rounds of the draft (290 taken) because no one likes the same guys and all 125 would never be taken.

First rounders regularly bust and guys who went undrafted regularly make the NHL. Thus it shouldn't be surprising that at age 17, opinions about these players should vary. But leading into the draft, when someone voices an opinion about a player that is seen to go against a perceived consensus, they are too often thought a fool. The Phoenix Coyotes took Blake Wheeler at fifth overall in 2004 and it raised a lot of eyebrows. It shouldn't have. The only thing they did wrong there was fail to take advantage of how little other teams valued Wheeler by trading down.

Back to the lists. There is usually a lot of change over the course of the season as well. Players who were good at age 15 and 16 often will plateau (Angelo Esposito), while the late-developers start to shine (Calvin de Haan). Seventeen-year-olds are only halfway developed. And at 17, players will develop just from the beginning of their draft year to the end. Late risers get taken high in every draft -- guys who are thought to have a lot of upside because they are still developing rapidly.

The Combine is a big factor in teams' rankings, with the battery of tests and interviews that it has. Peter Holland fell in the eyes of many, with the exception of Anaheim, after last year's. The playoffs are key too. And the playoffs for the junior leagues are still in the thick of things when the Central final list comes out. There's still lots more to go. Plus the U-18s, don't forget those. They can make or break someone.

All of this variance means that trying to do a mock draft before about April is pretty much ludicrous. You're much better served simply learning the players early in the year rather than trying to match them up with teams. NHL teams don't make their final list until early June just after the Combine. This is when mock drafts should be done.

Some people find scouting service Red Line Report to be "out there" -- believing they have far-out opinions. I don't think they are any farther out than an NHL team is. Some things they get right, some things they get wrong.

Personally I find my opinions closest to those of Central Scouting. I think they overvalue size a bit, but if I know that going in I can mentally correct for it. Their goalie rankings are decent. They had A. J. Thelen lower in 2004 than some others did, and turned out to be correct.

In sum, scouts are paid to have strong opinions about players. And they do. And they vary -- widely.

If we knew which 40 or so guys from each draft were going to make the NHL, we could stop at two rounds. But it goes seven rounds, because no one is sure where the next player will come from.
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Why Greg McKegg is an underdog

In my feature on Greg McKegg for Hockey's Future, I called him an underdog in the teaser. A reader asked why I used that term. He has good stats, how could he be an underdog?

Let me tell you how. Erie is one of three OHL teams that are on the American side of the border. Most NHL scouts live on the Canadian side. Right off the bat these teams gets scouted less. Are there still scouts at their home games? Yes, but only a few.

Second, Erie had some ownership, management and coaching issues in the recent past that soured a lot of people on the franchise. Former NHL coach Robbie Ftorek has been there for two and a half years now, and seems to really be whipping the team into shape. But the poor reputation is hard to shake.

These things lead to Erie's players being underrated. Happened last year with Ryan O'Reilly. You could also possibly include Jaroslav Janus in there, as he is now doing quite well as a 20-year-old in the AHL.

What about Andrew Yogan, you might ask. He's rated fairly high for the 2010 draft. Yes, he is, but he has been on scouts' radars for the 2010 draft for several years, long before he went to Erie in a trade last season. Yogan was the best player in the State of Florida and was going to go play in the USHL, when scouts intervened and steered him to the OHL. He ended up in Windsor, one of the rich teams, which wasn't a coincidence. But he disappointed there. He's got an NHL body and skates pretty well, so he'll probably go in the first three rounds just due to having the tools, but in my opinion he's a long shot to make it. He doesn't seem to have the desire. He seems to play like the game should just come to him.

McKegg on the other hand, hasn't had it easy. He sure is the apple of Ftorek's eye though. I went to Ftorek's post-game "press conference" (all three of us), and was a little nervous about asking him questions, knowing his penchant for yelling at people. But as soon as I said McKegg's name, his emotions changed, almost like a dad talking about his son. It's a high compliment when Ftorek likes you, so that speaks very well of McKegg. He seemed like a nice kid to me too, though he talks a little too fast for my taste. Makes it hard to transcribe.


Next year, for the 2011 draft, Erie will have David Broll. To me, he looks like he should be at least top 100. But I haven't seen anyone talking about him yet. What a surprise, given the team he plays on.
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Some USHL features

Last week I went to Indianapolis for the USHL All-Star Game. It was very enlightening as far as the 2010-eligible pool goes. I'm probably making one more trip to see more games later in the year and then will write one big ranking article. So I'll hold comments until then.



Indianapolis is very easy to get around with good public transportation. I was able to take a city bus to the arena, which made me happy. Three-quarters of the bus/shuttle drivers I had were women, interestingly.

So far I've written features on Nate Condon, Jaden Schwartz and Cab Morris from that trip. I've got a few more to go, but they may have to wait until I get back from seeing some OHL games this weekend.

I enjoyed talking to Morris as he's an interesting guy, and Nate Condon was one of the few interviews when I wish I had my video camera going instead of a recorder. He has comic delivery that print just doesn't capture. He'll be a telecast favorite as he moves up. Schwartz I didn't get the feeling is a big talker.
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Charlotte to the AHL, how it could go down

Dave Andrews, President of the AHL, was on XM Radio yesterday talking about Charlotte, NC coming into the AHL in the next year or two. This has been in the works for a long time, and I'm glad to hear it's coming along.

The logistics of this are interesting because unlike European leagues where there's relegation and promotion -- teams drop down a league if they come in last in the standings -- the minor leagues in North America don't work like that. Moving a city from one league to another is trickier and means buying and selling franchises.

The first thing that needs to happen for Charlotte to have an AHL team is to move the current ECHL Charlotte Checkers out of town. Who has the money and the interest do this? It's looking like the Checkers owner himself actually, with the understanding that they would affiliate with the Carolina Hurricans. It would be nice to have your top farm club nearby instead of in Albany, NY wouldn't it? And the Canes affiliation with the River Rats is up this year.

So now there's an ECHL team without a home. The owner could fold it up if he wanted, but how about moving it somewhere else, somewhere nearby that has a nice hockey arena...like say Greensboro? This city is strongly rumored to be getting an ECHL franchise next fall, and putting two and two together, I think it could be the former Charlotte franchise. The Canes could then have their NHL team and AHL and ECHL affiliates all in the same state. This makes for easy travel and good marketing. (Their ECHL affiliate is currently the Florida Everblades, but they don't send many players there.)

The investors in the Charlotte AHL team would need to purchase another AHL franchise to be able to move it to Charlotte. There are a number of struggling northeast teams, and the Iowa Chops franchise is also dormant. Any of these are candidates. The Edmonton Oilers own a dormant franchise too, but that's destined for Oklahoma City.

Could Charlotte to the AHL happen for fall 2010? It would be quicker than normal, but yes I think it could. There don't seem to be any big obstacles to overcome. I think the Charlotte fans would accept the new team. The arena can certainly accommodate what would likely be a somewhat bigger crowd; it is the NBA Charlotte Bobcats arena after all. It seats 14,100 for hockey.

Charlotte's closest AHL neighbor would be the Norfolk Admirals, located on the coast in Virginia, 327 miles away (5.5 hours). This would make Charlotte an outlier, but still much closer than Abbotsford, BC, whose closest team is in Winnipeg, Manitoba, half a continent away. Interestingly, Charlotte would not become Norfolk's closest neighbor, as Hershey is a hair closer at 318 miles away.

Brian Burke, when he was GM of the Anaheim Ducks, wanted to begin to move the AHL to the west coast. Maybe instead we'll see it move south, which has the advantage of keeping it closer to the existing teams. Travel costs can never be underestimated as a factor.

Charlotte has a metro population of about 1.8 million and is considered an up and coming city.

The last city to successfully move from the ECHL to the AHL was Peoria. They kept the moniker -- Rivermen -- which is rare.

Update (2/13/10): I'm hearing that rather than Greensboro, there's been some interest in moving the ECHL franchise to the midwest. But it's equally likely that it will just be folded.
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Sheahan feature article

I finished my feature on Riley Sheahan last night. He's a better player than he is an interviewee, but that's fine. And he'd have to be a reeeeally good interviewee to accomplish that anyway. But I did get some interesting information out of him I thought.

Having interviewed Kevin Lind the night before (also 2010-eligible and coincidentally a Notre Dame recruit), it was striking how young Sheahan seems. Most of the draft-eligible guys are really smooth already when you talk to them, but he's still kind of rough around the edges. Kind of the way Calvin de Haan was when I talked to him before his draft stock rose.

Regarding the Rick Nash comparison, Thang and I both thought of Nash independently, each of us with our own reasons (which are stated within). But I don't want to overstate the comparison. I think Nash is more power forward than Sheahan. Sheahan doesn't try to go through people the way Nash does, or used to when he was young.

The Lind piece is still forthcoming. We talked for 15 whole minutes, so there's a lot of transcribing involved.
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Notes on Notre Dame

I recently saw Notre Dame at the Shillelagh Tournament. Here are some notes on the prospects.

Kyle Lawson (CAR) -- I was surprised to see him listed at 5'11, because he doesn't look small on the ice. Defense is pretty good, he gets offensive chances. Usually plays D but was moved up due to shortage. Made a terrible giveaway trying to send the puck up the middle.

Riley Sheahan (2010) -- He's kind of boring to watch, actually. Not flashy, and in fact, doesn't look like he's doing much. But he really is, it's just so effortless for him that it fools you. Very good offensively and defensively. Spoke to him -- nice kid, but he's still really a kid. Not confident in himself yet. His game will probably take off even more when he is finally confident. The funniest part of the conversation was him saying it was a coincidence that he's Irish and ended up playing for the Irish. Said his family really liked the school. Yes, he said he is Catholic. Let's see, and Irish Catholic going to Notre Dame, gee I don't think it's a "coincidence."

Teddy Ruth (WAS) -- Very good defensively, smooth skater. It's surprising that he doesn't score more, given how well he skates and is in good position. He may just be cast in a role. But I think he's capable of more.

Ryan Thang (NAS) -- Typical third liner, effort but not slick. He's on a line with Sheahan so I asked Thang about him. He had some interesting things to say. We agreed that Sheahan reminds us of Rick Nash, but we each had different reasons for it.

Ben Ryan (NAS) -- Has good skill, shifty through traffic and protects the puck well, but has some real size issues that may hold him back.

Sean Lorenz (MIN) -- I cringed when he got near the puck. The Wild don't have great prospects and this is one more example.

Ian Cole (STL) -- Probably the best player on the ice, though Sheahan will rival him soon. Cole's strengths are well documented so I won't list them all. Nice kid too.
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Comments on Steel prospects for 2010

I caught a USHL game when I was in Chicago for a college tournament last weekend. I can tell the league has improve just from a few years ago when I saw it the last time. Here are some observations on some 2010-eligible prospects from the Steel and one from Lincoln.

Kevin Lind (2010) -- I liked him quite a bit, more than expected given his rankings. Very good defense and skating. Physical. Adequate puckhandling and offense. He needs to mature on the ice, but he's 17 so that's normal. Spoke to him for 15 minutes afterward and was very impressed by him personally. Should be a mid-round pick.

Andrei Kuchin (2010) -- Very good playmaker, and fast. I don't see how he slips through the draft again. He's getting PK time, so that will help his defense. Coach was bullish on him.

Brendan Woods (2010) -- It was his first game of the year due to a broken leg. I thought he looked good given the situation, can dangle and stays with the play til the end. Would be a late rounder if he gets taken.

Safir Gill (2010) -- Went home for a family situation, coach does not expect him back this year. This won't help his slim draft chances.

Jared Coreau (2010) Lincoln Stars -- Tall goalie with decent lateral movement, but poor glove and blocker. He has his glove OK in his stance, but as soon as the shot is coming, he drops it with open part down, and you're never going to catch pucks like that. He would need a complete makeover to have a future.

Mark Adams (Buffalo draft pick) -- Good size and skating, but very poor positioning.

Here's a photo of the action with Lind (7) and Kuchin (91) included in white.